Mladic in multiple locations with various ailments facing several deadlines

Confusion surrounding the status of Ratko Mladic continues. Some say he is hiding on Cer Mountain near the Serbian border, others that he has actually already been arrested in Romania, and last week it was reported that he was detained in Tuzla, Bosnia. In other news, the Americans have apparently offered him $5 million to surrender, which Mladic has reportedly refused, instead demanding "tens of millions" and other bizarre requests, such as a guarantee not to be shown on television in handcuffs. And according to the Dutch foreign minister, Mladic is desperately ill and is variously reported to be suffering from a stroke, a heart condition and/or kidney trouble.

Meanwhile, just as the "informal end-of-February deadline" for his capture is about to expire, the EU appears to have a set an "end-of-March deadline," threatening to freeze EU enlargement talks. On the other hand, one EU official is saying that it will not hold Serbia to any ultimatums over Mladic.

My prediction is that the EU will set a "formal but sort of informal mid-April-deadline." Mladic will surrender somewhere between Somalia and Iceland after accepting $8.3 million and a box of bonbons. He will have herpes. Seems as good a bet as any...